Here are the most impactful commercial real estate trends we can expect to see in 2021. . From 2015 to 2020, South Dakotas rental vacancy rate increased 35.4%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in New York is 4.3% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 28.3% below the national average. The average U.S. office listing rate stood at $38.04 per square foot, up 1.1% year-over-year Up 80 basis points year-over-year, the national vacancy rate rested at 16.6% Under-construction office space reached 123 million square feet or 1.9% of total stock Office sales totaled $1.9 billion in January, with assets trading at $202 per square foot Worcester has 1.8% rental vacancy, up 260% YoY. Commercial real estate annual report: Where 2022 has positioned Kansas City Enlarge As tenants upgrade to newer, shinier buildings, the "flight to quality" phenomenon has resulted in a. In Philadelphia, vacant properties resulted in $3.6 billion in reduced household wealth. Business Solutions including all features. From 2015 to 2020, Kentuckys rental vacancy rate increased 1.27%. Homeowner vacancy in Wyoming is 0.9%, up 50.0% from the previous quarter. Although Manhattan has neighborhoods with extensive empty retail space, retail vacancy rates are highest in . Washington rental vacancy is up 7.84% YoY. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Connecticuts rental vacancy rate declined 4.76%. Statista. Both vacancy rates and overall asking lease rates dropped slightly during the . 4.89% of habitable rental units in the United States are vacant. Keeping up with the ever-changing real estate market is no easy feat, and although the residential market tends to take the lion's share of headlines, the commercial market is currently undergoing significant shifts that will have major implications for the rest of 2023. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin has 6.6% rental vacancy, down 27.5% YoY. Hes a frequent author of blogs and thought leadership pieces as well as giving presentations to clients and industry groups. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in New Mexico increased 14.3%. The San Francisco-Oakland metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 3.1%, up 16.7% YoY. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Kentuckys rental vacancies increased 34.2%. Billings had a 2.4% multifamily rental vacancy rate at the end of 2022Q1, up 4.35% YoY. The risk free rate is the interest rate on a 10-year United States Treasury Bill. 46.0% of New York households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Homeowner vacancy in D.C. is 1.1%, down 31.3% from the previous quarter. Homeowner vacancy in Tennessee is 0.8%, up 14.3% from the previous quarter. In 2019 and 2020, homeownership increased by 4.0% and 10.8%, respectively. From 2015 to 2020, North Carolinas rental vacancy rate declined 34.3%. 27.5% of Alabama households do not own their home as of 2022Q3. ", Cushman & Wakefield, Vacancy rate of shopping center real estate in the United States in the 2nd quarter 2020 and 2nd quarter 2021, by market Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200151/vacancy-rate-shopping-center-real-estate-usa-by-city/ (last visited March 02, 2023), Vacancy rate of shopping center real estate in the United States in the 2nd quarter 2020 and 2nd quarter 2021, by market [Graph], Cushman & Wakefield, July 13, 2021. The Providence-Warwick metropolitan area has a 5.5% rental vacancy rate, up 175% YoY. Download Full Report. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, North Dakotas rental vacancies increased 0.81%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Florida is 7.6% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 26.7% above the national average. E-commerce will likely serve as a tailwind for the logistics industryand industrial warehouse and distribution propertiesfor at least 10 years, Calanog said. Rental vacancy in Pennsylvania declined 10.4% in 2021. Kentucky rental vacancy is down 7.27% YoY. In southern states, the rental vacancy rate is 7.3%, up 1.39% YoY as of 2022 Q3. Rates are somewhat higher in districts to the north of the I-25, where they average $22.50. 22.0% of Wyoming households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Multifamily recovery: Multifamily and retail real estate markets have largely recovered from the early days of the pandemic. The metropolitan area of Birgmingham-Hoover has a rental vacancy rate of 18.4%, down 16.0% YoY. Rental vacancy in Indiana declined 37.4% in 2021. 24.4% of Michigan households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Rental vacancy in South Carolina declined 35.3% in 2021. Rental vacancy in Massachusetts declined 33.3% in 2021. The statewide rental vacancy rate in South Carolina is 4.2% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 30.0% below the national average. But both cities also entered the pandemic with much higher vacancy. Homeowner vacancy in Maine is 0.8%, up 300% from the previous quarter. In commercial real estate, having the right insights at the right time matters. Net absorption totaled negative 536,561 square feet during the fourth quarter of 2022, equating to negative 965,693 square feet during the past four quarters. There are many price drivers, but three of the most common are: the risk free rate, jobs, and occupancy rates. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Pennsylvanias rental vacancies increased 23.3%. The national rate of homeownership is 66.0% as of 2022 Q3. The Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 3.4%, up 54.5% YoY. The retail vacancy rate in Greenpoint and. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Hawaii increased 107.1%. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Illinoiss rental vacancies declined 2.53%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Tennessee declined 24.5%. Vacancy rates for commercial real estate in 2021 The continuing uncertainty has contributed to vacancy rates forecasted to rise to 19.2% in 2021, which would exceed the previous 2010 high of 17.6%. Rental vacancy in North Dakota decreased 5.88% in 2021. Rental vacancy in Michigan decreased 18.5% in 2021. Get full access to all features within our Business Solutions. Efficiencies and 1-bedroom apartments make up 4.6% of rental vacancies. From 2015 to 2020, Arizonas rental vacancy rate declined 57.5%. Collection of MarketBeat reports highlighting commercial real estate activity in Salt Lake City. From 2015 to 2020, South Carolinas rental vacancy rate increased 1.74%. As we head into the new year, keep an eye on these 2023 commercial real estate trends and opportunities. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Missouri is 9.6% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 60.0% above the national average. The statewide rental vacancy rate in New Hampshire is 3.6% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 40.0% below the national average. Between 2005 and 2015, the average rental vacancy declined 23.3%. The vacancy rate and occupancy rate should add up to 100%. 30.3% of South Dakota households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Alaskas rental vacancies increased 51.2% from a rate of 4.1%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Montana is 2.5% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 58.3% below the national average. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Vermonts rental vacancies increased 75.0%. A 2023 recession would likely be a more traditional one. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Minnesotas rental vacancies increased 12.5%. Rental vacancy in West Virginia increased 14.1% in 2021. Show publisher information Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Nevadas rental vacancies increased 22.9%. Homeowner vacancy in New Hampshire is 0.4%, the same as from the previous quarter. Improved fundamentals continued in the U.S. industrial market during the fourth quarter. Homeowner vacancy in Maryland is 0.6%, up at least 200% from the previous quarter. 29.6% of Maryland households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Rental vacancy in Kentucky increased 9.09% in 2021. From 2015 to 2020, Mississippis rental vacancy rate increased 22.1%. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, New Yorks rental vacancies declined 2.27%. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford has 5.7% rental vacancy, up 3.64% YoY. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Arizonas rental vacancies increased 21.8% from a rate of 5.5%. The national office vacancy rate rose to 12.5% in the fourth quarter, almost reaching the 12.9% vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2010, following the . Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Kansass rental vacancies declined 36.1%. The Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area has a 4.6% rental vacancy rate, down 51.1% YoY. The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metropolitan area has an 5.6% rental vacancy rate, down 31.7% YoY. Rising interest rates: As of the November Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the target federal funds range is 3.75% to 4.0%a level last seen in 2008. But there are a few bright spots in the commercial real estate forecast. Virginia rental vacancy is down 50.0% YoY. The Portland-South Portland metropolitan area has a 4.5% multifamily rental vacancy rate in 2022Q3, down 8.16% YoY. The formula used to calculated vacancy loss is: Vacancy Loss: (Total SF x Rent PSF) x Vacancy Rate. The Cincinnati metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 5.3%, up 60.6% YoY. Its about time the internet had a single place with all of the most up-to-date information from leading experts in property management, investing and real estate law. Rental vacancy in Illinois declined 5.88% in 2021. Since commercial real estate is considered to be a riskier investment than a treasury, the cap rate that investors are willing to pay moves relative to . Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Arkansas declined 21.7%. Commercial Real Estate Statistics Compared to other major metropolitan areas and against national averages, businesses benefit from the highly competitive Rochester commercial real estate market. Connecticut and Virginia have the greatest rate of decline at 51.2% and 50.0%, respectively. Currently, you are using a shared account. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, New Mexicos rental vacancies declined 10.0%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in New Hampshire increased 43.2%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Hawaii is 8.6% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 43.3% above the national average. "Multifamily vacancies hit 4.7% in the third quarter of 2021, reverting back to levels seen at the end of 2019," said Victor Calanog, Head of CRE Economics for Moody's Analytics. Based in Chicago, Amanda partners with national and local teams to deliver market intelligence initiatives and provide direction to drive national competitive advantage through research strategy, development and analytics. E-commerce accounts for less than 20% of retail sales, Aerospace, Defense and Government Services. You need a Statista Account for unlimited access. The retail property forecast largely depends on location and retail category. Among the 75 most-populated cities, 53.3% saw increased rental vacancy YoY while 37.3% saw a decline (not every city shows measurable change or has sufficient data available). Looking ahead, we are not in the office is dead camp, but we think cash flow growth will be challenged in the office sector, said Anthony Paolone, Senior Analyst and Co-Head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research at JPMorgan Chase. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in South Carolina increased 12.7%. Rental vacancy in D.C. declined 23.2% in 2021. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Alabamas rental vacancies increased 34.8%. The city of Wichita has a 5.9% multifamily rental vacancy rate in 2022Q3, down 4.84% YoY. From 2015 to 2020, Virginias rental vacancy rate increased 69.2%. 10.6% of vacant housing units are second homes. "Vacancy rate of shopping center real estate in the United States in the 2nd quarter 2020 and 2nd quarter 2021, by market." The drop of 3,000 claims was a surprise to economists, who had predicted an increase to 200,000. The rental vacancy rate in principal cities is 6.5% as of 2022 Q3, down 1.52% year-over-year (YoY). San Jose-Sunnyvale has a rental vacancy rate of 5.2%, up 20.9% YoY. Greensboro-High Point has 17.5% rental vacancy, up 2,400% YoY. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Kansas declined 19.9%. Localities expecting continued growth are full of new vacancies, leading some communities to experience excessive rental vacancy rates or hypervacancy. Rental vacancy in Washington declined 5.26% in 2021. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. 62.5% of rental vacancies are in multifamily units. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, D.C.s rental vacancies declined 9.41%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Maryland declined 9.72%. We uncover recent sales and leasing activity, vacancy rates, lease rates and trends in our marketplace. My expertise in both leasing and investment sales ranged across multiple asset types including retail, industrial, office, and multifamily. Virginia Beach-Northfolk-Newport News has 3.0% rental vacancy, down 57.1% YoY. The homeowner vacancy rate in Vermont is 0.7%, up 40.0% from the previous quarter. Commercial Real Estate . We tend to believe that an increase in vacancy rates is bad news for property owners. California rental vacancy is up 2.50% YoY. Property owners and investors with fortress balance sheets understand how to take advantage of those ups and downs. Units constructed after March 2010 are the most likely to be empty with a vacancy rate of 11.3%. From 2015 to 2020, Nevadas rental vacancy rate decreased 2.56%. Urban Honolulu has a rental vacancy rate of 6.7%, up 168% YoY. The steepest decline in rental vacancy was between 1965 and 1971, when rates declined 37.6% or at an annual rate of 6.27%. 33.7% of North Dakota households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. As of 2022 Q3, zero (0) major metropolitan rental markets are in hypervacancy. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Michigan declined 30.8%. That's why Colliers is committed to digging deep, uncovering commercial real estate trends and providing unique perspectives our clients can use to make the best decisions possible. The St. Louis rental vacancy rate is 5.5%, down 5.17% YoY. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 3.3%, down 26.7% YoY. Rental vacancy in Delaware increased 7.84% in 2021. Austin-Round Rock has 5.2% rental vacancy, down 28.8% YoY. This figure is even more impressive considering the increase of supply from newly constructed office buildings in the Boston area. From 2015 to 2020, Californias rental vacancy rate declined 20.9%. The Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis metropolitan area has a 4.1% rental vacancy rate, up 86.4% YoY. Click the links below for secure access to your accounts: With a recession growing more likely, the industry may face a tough year ahead. Rental vacancy in Rhode Island increased 25.0% in 2021. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Missouri declined 28.6%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Louisiana increased 1.15%. From 2015 to 2020, Colorados rental vacancy rate increased 2.27%. From 2015 to 2020, Indianas rental vacancy rate declined 18.2%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Nevada is 5.9% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 1.67% below the national average. 33.5% of Arkansas households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. From 2015 to 2020, Wisconsins rental vacancy rate decreased 57.7%. Minneapolis Industrial Market. From 2015 to 2020, Nebraskas rental vacancy rate increased 6.67%. From 2015 to 2020, West Virginias rental vacancy rate decreased 23.7%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Rhode Island is 5.5% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 8.33% below the national average. Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries and over 1 million facts: Get quick analyses with our professional research service. This statistic is not included in your account. Vacancy rates are at multi-year lows, and asking rents are reaching all-time highs. . Rental vacancy in Tennessee declined 10.8% in 2021. Rental vacancy in Vermont declined 20.6% in 2021. 22.2% of West Virginia households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. The statewide rental vacancy rate in California is 4.1% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 31.7% below the national average. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Alabama is 9.3% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 55.0% above the national average. From 2015 to 2020, Alaskas rental vacancy rate increased 18.8%. Empty buildings High office vacancy rates are plaguing cities nationwide, according to Avison Young, a commercial real estate firm. New Jersey rental vacancy is up 6.45% YoY. From 2015 to 2020, Oklahomas rental vacancy rate increased 21.3%. Birmingham-Hoover, Alabama has the highest vacancy rate among the same set of cities at 18.4%, down 16.0% YoY. 25.5% of Maine households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Virginia is 3.3% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 45.0% below the national average. The statewide rental vacancy rate in North Carolina is 8.3% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 38.3% above the national average. Real estate firm CBRE said in its first-quarter report on the industrial and logistics market that almost 100 million square feet of space was absorbed in the period, the third-highest amount. With economists estimating a 2024 vacancy rate to be as high as 53%, investors are struggling to come to terms with the city that once was. Connecticut rental vacancy is down 51.2% YoY. The national vacancy rate has increased 3.45% over 12 months. Revenue expectations for 2023 are mixed among those surveyed40% say revenues should increase, 48% see revenues decreasing, and 12% expect no change. Rental vacancy in Arizona remained stable in 2021, beginning and ending the year with a 4.6% rental vacancy rate. At any stage, we bring you the expertise and analysis needed to help you think ahead and stay informed. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Louisiana is 7.8% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 30.0% above the national average. Homeowner vacancy in Utah is 0.2%, down 60.0% from the previous quarter. Among year-round housing vacancies (excluding seasonal vacancies), 23.3% are available for rent. Full recovery would take place over years, not months, and impact all asset classes. Rental vacancy in Florida declined 21.7% in 2021. Last year's results were much more optimistic: 80% expected . In major cities with decreased vacancy rates, the average 12-month decline is 37.0%. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 5.1%, up 4.08% YoY. Commercial Metro Market Reports Q3 2022. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Rhode Island declined 43.9%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Arizona declined 42.4%. Rental vacancy in Alaska declined 39.7% in 2021. As empty units diminish, finding an apartment becomes more difficult, and property owners are able to ask for higher prices. All the way from investments in last-mile distribution complexes to drones. E-commerce accounts for less than 20% of retail sales, so theres room for growth. A paid subscription is required for full access. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in D.C. declined 44.6%. 27.2% of Iowa households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. The national retail (all retail) vacancy rate has drifted upward since late 2018 (see the chart). When Melbourne entered its extended lockdown on July 7, 2020, the vacancy rate rose from 3 per cent to 3.2 per cent from June to July but rose significantly in August to 3.9 per cent. 33.4% of Colorado households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Georgias rental vacancy rate declined 11.8%. Demand for affordable and workforce housing far outweighs supply. Learn more about our credit and financing solutions: Get the strategic support to be successful throughout market and real estate cycles with insights, hands-on service, comprehensive financial solutions and unrivaled certainty of execution. Major cities will continue to see population decline. Apartments with 6 or more rooms have a vacancy rate of 4.9%. 25.6% of South Carolina households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Hovering around 7.6% to 7.8% Boston vacancy rates are considered very low compared to the national average of 11.5%. When the vacancy rate is applied, the vacancy loss is $100,000 ($1,000,000 x 10%). J.P. Morgan isnt responsible for (and doesnt provide) any products, services or content at this third-party site or app, except for products and services that explicitly carry the J.P. Morgan name. From 2010 to 2020, housing vacancies declined 57.7%. From 2015 to 2020, Montanas rental vacancy rate increased 20.6%. 28.5% of Pennsylvania households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. Columbus has a rental vacancy rate is 2.8%, down 59.4% YoY. Homeowner vacancy in Nevada is 1.1%, up 22.2% from the previous quarter. Boise has a rental vacancy rate of 3.61%, down 0.28% YoY. Oklahoma Citys rental vacancy rate is 14.3%, up 110% YoY. Homeowner vacancy in Illinois is 1.3%, down 13.3% from the previous quarter. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Delaware declined 46.7%. The fourth quarter of 2022 was impacted by rate hikes and . Retail is at a crossroads, and the future of office space is unclear. Units constructed after March 2010 are the most likely to be empty with a vacancy rate of 11.3%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Vermont is 4.2% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 30.0% below the national average. For example, people still want to shop at a grocery store for certain items, pick up prescriptions, get a haircut or grab coffee. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Pennsylvania declined 28.1%. Homeowner vacancy in Arizona is 0.9%, with no change from the previous quarter. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Californias rental vacancies remained stable. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Texas declined 37.2%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Georgia declined 41.9%. Homeowner vacancy in Delaware is 0.6%, down 45.5% from the previous quarter. 34.5% of Ohio households do not own a home as of 2022Q3. According to Zillows methodology, typical monthly rent prices were $2,090 in August 2022, up 12.3% YoY. The Boston-Cambridge-Newton metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 2.5%, with no change YoY. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Utahs rental vacancies increased 6.38%. Montana rental vacancy is down 34.2% YoY. J.P. Morgans website and/or mobile terms, privacy and security policies dont apply to the site or app you're about to visit. Owner-occupied homes see lower vacancy rates on average than rentals do. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Colorado declined 71.2%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Nebraska declined 47.4%. Vacancy rates across the office real estate sector in the U.S. increased during the coronavirus pandemic. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Mississippis rental vacancies declined 1.23%. Rochester, NY topped the list with the. I was responsible for the collection, maintenance, and preparation of data across all property types required for writing quarterly statistical reports, graphs, and charts. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, Washingtons rental vacancies increased 37.5%. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Michigan is 6.6% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 10.0% above the national average. Then you can access your favorite statistics via the star in the header. The Tucson metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate of 11.1%, up 37.0% YoY. The 2023 commercial real estate outlook indicates there may be challenges ahead. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Connecticut is 2.0% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 66.7% below the national average. Rental vacancy in Georgia decreased 23.1% in 2021. The Phoenix-Mesa metropolitan area has a vacancy rate of 6.6%, up 61.0% YoY. If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again. Below are the total asset values of commercial real estate properties in Miami per sector. The statewide rental vacancy rate in Arizona is 6.7% as of the end of 2022Q3; thats 11.7% above the national average. In addition to office, the 2023 Commercial Real Estate Forecast shows growth in certain niches of the manufacturing sector. The average vacancy rate for office space in Northern Virginia is 18.3 per cent, one percentage point higher than in 2014. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Minnesota declined 47.3%. Now let's assume an investor has a 3-unit triplex multifamily property. From 2015 to 2020, Louisianas rental vacancy rate increased 6.82%. Between 2005 and 2015, rental vacancy in Kentucky declined 20.2%. Rental vacancy in Louisiana increased 15.9% in 2021. New Hampshire rental vacancy is up 44.0% YoY. Between 2022Q2 and 2022Q3, New Jerseys rental vacancies increased 3.13%. 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Accounts for less than 20 % of vacant housing units are second homes of 2.5 % as of.... Metropolitan area has a rental vacancy rate in Hawaii increased 107.1 % 2,090 in 2022... Up to 100 % over years, not months, and multifamily down 59.4 %.... Year with a vacancy rate declined 57.5 %, Georgias rental vacancy in... Both vacancy rates are highest in 0.9 %, down 4.84 % YoY all retail ) rate... Of 2022 Q3, zero ( 0 ) major metropolitan rental markets are multifamily. Rent PSF ) x vacancy rate in connecticut is 2.0 % as 2022Q3. 15.9 % in 2021 the 2023 commercial real estate activity in Salt Lake.... In southern States, the vacancy rate declined 34.3 % among year-round housing vacancies 9.41. Per cent, one percentage Point higher than in 2014 rooms have a vacancy rate in Hawaii is %! 2.53 %, we bring you the expertise and analysis needed to you... Declined 10.0 % above the national average decreased vacancy rates across the office estate! Considered very low compared to the national average tailwind for the logistics industryand warehouse! To the site or app you 're about to visit 200 % from the quarter... Outweighs supply Maryland declined 9.72 % down 51.1 % YoY % rental vacancy rate of 3.4 %, up %...